← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 66% | 66% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.44 | fair |
| Chievo win | 13% | 12% | 7.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 26' | 🟨 | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 82' | 🟨 | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 269.00 | 1243.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1597.82 | 1468.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.59 | -14.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 32.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 5.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |