← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 42% | 45% | 2.32 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Spal win | 27% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Mario Sampirisi · Crotone |
| 30' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 37' | ⚽ | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 49' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 51' | ⚽ | Lorenco Šimić · Spal |
| 60' | ⚽ | Alberto Paloschi · Spal |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 81' | 🟨 | Alberto Paloschi · Spal |
| 86' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 604.00 | 1182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1463.17 | 1483.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.76 | -23.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |