← Serie A 2017-18 · Mon, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 83% | 87% | 1.18 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 7.90 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 5% | 3% | 19.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Nícolas · Hellas Verona FC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 33 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 689.00 | 628.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.28 |
| elo | 1685.27 | 1478.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.87 | -10.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | -1.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.72 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 46.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -12.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |