← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 54% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.58 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 19% | 23% | 5.15 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Mattia De Sciglio · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Molinaro · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 48.00 | 1328.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1623.31 | 1911.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.42 | 15.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 36.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.94 | 2.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |