← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 86% | 85% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 9% | 9.00 | fair |
| Spal win | 3% | 6% | 28.75 | value: +64% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Allan · SSC Napoli |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 64' | 🟨 | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 77' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 83' | 🟨 | Filippo Costa · Spal |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bartosz Salamon · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 993.00 | 1175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1864.19 | 1485.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.39 | -33.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 63.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.63 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.98 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.32 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |