← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 58% | 64% | 1.69 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.96 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 18% | 13% | 5.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
| 40' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 54' | 🟨 | Gian Marco Ferrari · Sampdoria |
| 71' | 🟨 | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
| 79' | 🟨 | Valerio Verre · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 109.00 | 597.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.73 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1660.33 | 1607.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.12 | 42.90 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 38.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 22.09 | 22.98 |
| state index | 1.18 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |