← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento win | 41% | 36% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.27 | value: +4% |
| Crotone win | 29% | 32% | 3.37 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Giovanni Crociata · Crotone |
| 25' | 🟨 | Massimo Coda · Benevento |
| 32' | 🟨 | Gaetano Letizia · Benevento |
| 37' | ⚽ | Sandro · Benevento |
| 58' | 🟨 | Enrico Brignola · Benevento |
| 65' | ⚽ | Nicolas Viola · Benevento |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 67' | 🟨 | Filip Đuričić · Benevento |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ahmad Benali · Crotone |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Crotone |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sandro · Benevento |
| 89' | ⚽ | Cheick Diabaté · Benevento |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 19 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| coach days | 140.00 | 597.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1404.52 | 1473.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.22 | 28.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 7.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.29 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -1.04 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |