← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 55% | 59% | 1.78 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.76 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 19% | 19% | 5.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Jens Stryger Larsen · Udinese Calcio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Stipe Perica · Udinese Calcio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Cengiz Ünder · AS Roma |
| 77' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 504.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1556.25 | 1786.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.80 | -15.13 |
| eye test v1 | -1.26 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| league points | 33.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 26.28 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |