← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luigi Nasca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 45% | 34% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.05 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 23% | 38% | 4.26 | value: +61% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Manuel Pucciarelli · Chievo |
| 74' | ⚽ | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
| 76' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marco Andreolli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 81' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Stefano Sorrentino · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 1235.00 |
| 992.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1459.39 | 1495.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.57 | 6.49 |
| eye test v1 | -1.39 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 46.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.29 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |