← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 55% | 57% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.77 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 19% | 18% | 5.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nicolás Burdisso · Torino FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Emil Hallfreðsson · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 41.00 | 498.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1612.74 | 1566.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.89 | -2.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| league points | 33.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.28 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |