← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 65% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.47 | value: +13% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 13% | 15% | 7.44 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Bartosz Bereszyński · Sampdoria |
| 50' | ⚽ | Édgar Barreto · Sampdoria |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Hellas Verona FC |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 590.00 | 620.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1599.16 | 1486.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.93 | -5.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | -1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 38.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 36.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |