← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 82% | 86% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 9% | 7.60 | fair |
| Benevento win | 5% | 4% | 18.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Guilherme · Benevento |
| 26' | ⚽ | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
| 59' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 62' | ⚽ | Cengiz Ünder · AS Roma |
| 75' | ⚽ | Cengiz Ünder · AS Roma |
| 76' | ⚽ | Enrico Brignola · Benevento |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Grégoire Defrel · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 255.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1783.55 | 1407.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.83 | 3.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| league points | 44.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 0.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.28 | — |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |