← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 65% | 71% | 1.51 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.21 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 12% | 10% | 7.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |