← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 37% | 39% | 2.65 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.02 | fair |
| Chievo win | 31% | 32% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Nicolás Spolli · Genoa CFC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Laxalt · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 1229.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1470.51 | 1491.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.28 | 20.80 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | -1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| league points | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| state index | -1.14 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |