← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 52% | 57% | 1.89 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.41 | fair |
| Spal win | 20% | 21% | 4.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 17' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 29' | 🟨 | Lorenco Šimić · Spal |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lucas Biglia · AC Milan |
| 51' | 🟨 | Federico Mattiello · Spal |
| 65' | ⚽ | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 73' | ⚽ | Lucas Biglia · AC Milan |
| 81' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fabio Borini · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 0 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1167.00 | 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1500.51 | 1629.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.06 | 26.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 17.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 22.09 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |