← Serie A 2017-18 · Fri, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 51% | 57% | 1.90 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 20% | 14% | 4.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · Juventus FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Gil Dias · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
| 84' | 🟨 | Cyril Théréau · ACF Fiorentina |
| 86' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 253.00 | 1319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.96 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| elo | 1599.40 | 1905.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.29 | 13.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 31.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 2.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 2.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.09 | 2.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |