← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 79% | 86% | 1.23 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 6.77 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 6% | 4% | 15.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Sami Khedira · Juventus FC |
| 27' | ⚽ | Sami Khedira · Juventus FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Federico Peluso · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 38' | ⚽ | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Francesco Magnanelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1314.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1902.25 | 1500.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.52 | 1.78 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 56.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.55 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | 1.89 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -1.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |