← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 84% | 85% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 9% | 8.54 | fair |
| Benevento win | 4% | 6% | 21.94 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 47' | ⚽ | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 73' | 🟨 | Berat Djimsiti · Benevento |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 4 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| coach days | 126.00 | 979.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1409.73 | 1879.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.04 | 15.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 68.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| league points | 7.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.32 | 2.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.56 | 1.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |