← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 67% | 76% | 1.46 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.57 | fair |
| Chievo win | 12% | 7% | 8.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 72' | ⚽ | Gianluca Mancini · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 613.00 | 1222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -0.60 |
| -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1701.84 | 1473.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.00 | -30.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| league points | 33.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.73 | — |
| state index | 0.77 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |