← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 42% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 30% | 30% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.58 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
| 11' | ⚽ | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
| 16' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · Torino FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Édgar Barreto · Sampdoria |
| 25' | ⚽ | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 73' | 🟥 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Emiliano Viviano · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 582.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1600.57 | 1611.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.26 | 11.16 |
| eye test v1 | 1.32 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 37.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |