← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 76% | 80% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.72 | fair |
| Crotone win | 6% | 6% | 15.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Éder · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 29' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Crotone |
| 60' | 🟨 | Éder · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 60' | ⚽ | Andrea Barberis · Crotone |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Crotone |
| 89' | 🟨 | Federico Ricci · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 247.00 | 582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.25 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1699.48 | 1461.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.66 | 9.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| league points | 44.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |