← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 69% | 67% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.03 | fair |
| Benevento win | 12% | 13% | 8.24 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Berat Djimsiti · Benevento |
| 33' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · Torino FC |
| 34' | 🟥 | Vid Belec · Benevento |
| 40' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · Torino FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joel Obi · Torino FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Cristian Molinaro · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 27.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1604.57 | 1416.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.18 | -3.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.60 |
| league points | 29.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |