← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 78% | 79% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.30 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 7% | 6% | 14.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Jagoš Vuković · Hellas Verona FC |
| 20' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · Hellas Verona FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 35' | 🟨 | Antonio Caracciolo · Hellas Verona FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Moise Kean · Hellas Verona FC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · Hellas Verona FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mattia Valoti · Hellas Verona FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Hellas Verona FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Gil Dias · ACF Fiorentina |
| 55' | ⚽ | Alex Ferrari · Hellas Verona FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 82' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 28 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 241.00 | 606.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.21 |
| elo | 1725.62 | 1531.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.53 | -12.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -1.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 28.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | -16.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 5.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |