← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 37% | 41% | 2.61 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.97 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 30% | 28% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcello Trotta · Crotone |
| 45' | 🟥 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luca Cigarini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 56' | 🟨 | Federico Ricci · Crotone |
| 56' | 🟨 | Diego Farias · Cagliari Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days |
| 576.00 |
| 972.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| elo | 1463.10 | 1477.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.06 | -3.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -1.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -13.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | -1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |