← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 72% | 80% | 1.35 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 9% | 4.92 | fair |
| Chievo win | 8% | 12% | 12.10 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Asamoah · Juventus FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Samuel Bastien · Chievo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Samuel Bastien · Chievo |
| 37' | 🟥 | Samuel Bastien · Chievo |
| 61' | 🟥 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
| 67' | ⚽ | Sami Khedira · Juventus FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 1 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 1214.00 | 1306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1477.03 | 1898.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.66 | 19.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | 1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 22.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 2.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| state index | -0.83 | 1.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |