← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 49% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.71 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 25% | 25% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 38' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alessandro Florenzi · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 572.00 | 237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1692.82 | 1910.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.85 | -28.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 33.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 22.98 | 26.28 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |