← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 64% | 69% | 1.53 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.16 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 13% | 13% | 7.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Stipe Perica · Udinese Calcio |
| 22' | ⚽ (og) | Samir · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 47' | ⚽ | Nani · SS Lazio |
| 87' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 663.00 | 480.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1727.14 | 1564.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.04 | 45.24 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.85 |
| league points | 43.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.28 |
| state index | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |