← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 40% | 38% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.28 | value: +12% |
| Crotone win | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Andrea Barberis · Crotone |
| 17' | 🟨 | Federico Ricci · Crotone |
| 27' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
| 28' | 🟨 | Bruno Martella · Crotone |
| 32' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Hellas Verona FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Adrian Stoian · Crotone |
| 54' | ⚽ | Adrian Stoian · Crotone |
| 61' | 🟥 | Bruno Zuculini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Federico Ricci · Crotone |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marco Capuano · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 599.00 | 569.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1486.46 | 1440.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.60 | -9.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.72 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -17.40 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |