← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 52% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.61 | value: +9% |
| Spal win | 21% | 20% | 4.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 13' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 42' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sergio Floccari · Spal |
| 58' | 🟨 | Federico Viviani · Spal |
| 82' | 🟨 | Danilo · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 23 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 477.00 | 1147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1568.05 | 1507.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 57.79 | -15.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.28 | — |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |