← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 40% | 37% | 2.41 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 30% | 34% | 3.26 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 33' | 🟨 | Valentin Eysseric · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 68' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 80' | ⚽ | Carlos Sánchez · ACF Fiorentina |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 569.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 3.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1677.68 | 1740.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.20 | 6.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 30.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |