← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 59% | 62% | 1.66 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.90 | fair |
| Spal win | 16% | 15% | 6.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 26' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 30' | ⚽ | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 40' | 🟨 | Federico Mattiello · Spal |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1132.00 | 645.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1518.64 | 1710.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.90 | -30.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 15.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |