← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 89% | 89% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 6% | 12.50 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 3% | 5% | 33.00 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Daniel Bessa · Hellas Verona FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Rômulo · Hellas Verona FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 67' | 🟨 | Martín Cáceres · Hellas Verona FC |
| 78' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alex Ferrari · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 950.00 | 584.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1868.38 | 1488.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.58 | -5.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.60 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 48.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.53 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | -12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.27 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |