← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 81% | 80% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.35 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 5% | 7% | 18.50 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Blaise Matuidi · Juventus FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Martín Cáceres · Hellas Verona FC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Martín Cáceres · Hellas Verona FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rômulo · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 577.00 | 1278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1492.40 | 1891.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.45 | 20.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| league points | 13.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.20 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| state index | -0.18 | 1.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |