← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 77% | 82% | 1.27 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.60 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 8% | 6% | 12.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 58' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 78' | ⚽ | Simone Missiroli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Falcinelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Magnanelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 212.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1824.27 | 1513.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.80 | 8.58 |
| eye test v1 | 1.40 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| league points | 38.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.68 | — |
| state index | 1.19 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |