← Serie A 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 81% | 81% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.35 | fair |
| Crotone win | 6% | 6% | 16.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jorginho · SSC Napoli |
| 39' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
| 51' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 15 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 546.00 | 942.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1447.04 | 1866.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.27 | -6.08 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 15.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | 1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.88 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |