← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 56% | 55% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.01 | value: +15% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 20% | 16% | 4.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 448.00 | 570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1544.57 | 1505.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.32 | 19.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 21.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.28 | — |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |