← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 39% | 44% | 2.49 | value: +10% |
| Spal win | 31% | 27% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 10' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Michele Cremonesi · Spal |
| 35' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 42' | ⚽ | Federico Viviani · Spal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 62' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Mora · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1118.00 | 540.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1574.11 | 1717.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.42 | 15.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.63 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |