← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 57% | 48% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.91 | value: +10% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 18% | 24% | 5.51 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 34' | ⚽ | Diego Falcinelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 73' | 🟨 | Francesco Magnanelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 52.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 5.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1498.87 | 1718.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.37 | 5.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| league points | 17.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |