← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 81% | 80% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.58 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 6% | 8% | 15.71 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
| 16' | ⚽ | Allan · SSC Napoli |
| 18' | 🟨 | Ivan Strinić · Sampdoria |
| 21' | 🟨 | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 26' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj · SSC Napoli |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 33' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 39' | ⚽ | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 57' | 🟨 | Emiliano Viviano · Sampdoria |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
| 72' | 🟨 | Valerio Verre · Sampdoria |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 77' | 🟥 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 82' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 936.00 | 540.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1981.78 | 1686.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.24 | -27.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.60 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 42.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.67 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.91 | 22.98 |
| state index | 1.45 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |