← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 38% | 39% | 2.55 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 33% | 32% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 32' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · Atalanta BC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 71' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 52.00 | 570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1618.01 | 1683.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.87 | 17.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 21.98 | 25.73 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |