← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 77% | 81% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.25 | fair |
| Crotone win | 7% | 6% | 13.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jordan Lukaku · SS Lazio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Arlind Ajeti · Crotone |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 86' | ⚽ | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 89' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 631.00 | 540.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1703.33 | 1452.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.21 | -32.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 33.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |