← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 57% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.89 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 18% | 23% | 5.43 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
| 52' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1271.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1884.74 | 1831.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.89 | -2.89 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | 1.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.76 |
| league points | 41.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 65.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.41 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 15.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 22.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.68 |
| state index | 1.48 | 1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |