← Serie A 2017-18 · Fri, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 37% | 34% | 2.68 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 32% | 38% | 3.07 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mattia Destro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 32' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 50' | ⚽ | Simone Verdi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Paweł Jaroszyński · Chievo |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · Chievo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 81' | 🟥 | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 85' | ⚽ | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mattia Destro · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 1178.00 | 813.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1504.32 | 1510.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.34 | 17.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |