← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 63% | 56% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.34 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 14% | 22% | 6.86 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Antonio Caracciolo · Hellas Verona FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Bruno Zuculini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · AC Milan |
| 49' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 55' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · Hellas Verona FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marcel Büchel · Hellas Verona FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nícolas · Hellas Verona FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Daniel Bessa · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Suso · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 30 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 13 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 564.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1483.72 | 1640.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.99 | -12.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 21.98 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.29 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |