← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 49% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 25% | 20% | 3.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 534.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1582.86 | 1484.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.57 | -21.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |