← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 36% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +7% |
| Crotone win | 32% | 35% | 3.04 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 32% | 26% | 3.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Arlind Ajeti · Crotone |
| 33' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · Crotone |
| 41' | 🟨 | Samuel Bastien · Chievo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Massimo Gobbi · Chievo |
| 63' | 🟨 | Andrea Barberis · Crotone |
| 65' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Crotone |
| 65' | 🟨 | Valter Birsa · Chievo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dario Dainelli · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aristóteles Romero · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 534.00 | 1173.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -9.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 11.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| elo | 1442.04 | 1514.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.82 | 19.99 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -14.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |