← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 67% | 71% | 1.47 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.40 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 11% | 12% | 9.00 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Mbaye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 64' | ⚽ | Blaise Matuidi · Juventus FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bruno Petković · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 3 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 808.00 | 1265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1515.62 | 1879.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.43 | -6.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.54 |
| league points | 21.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 19.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| state index | 0.02 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |