← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento win | 38% | 36% | 2.61 | fair |
| Spal win | 33% | 37% | 2.96 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Raman Chibsah · Benevento |
| 46' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 51' | 🟨 | Gaetano Letizia · Benevento |
| 58' | 🟨 | Federico Mattiello · Spal |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Michele Cremonesi · Benevento |
| 64' | ⚽ | Sergio Floccari · Spal |
| 73' | ⚽ | Sergio Floccari · Spal |
| 84' | 🟨 | Michele Cremonesi · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| coach days | 77.00 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| 1112.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 4.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1419.60 | 1520.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.70 | -9.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| league points | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.06 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.39 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |