← Serie A 2017-18 · Mon, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 64% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.67 | value: +7% |
| Torino FC win | 15% | 13% | 6.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟥 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 54' | ⚽ | Álex Berenguer · Torino FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 69' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 73' | ⚽ | Simone Edera · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 619.00 | 528.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1724.89 | 1584.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.75 | 11.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.42 | 0.70 |
| league points | 32.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |