← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 44% | 47% | 2.24 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 28% | 24% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Federico Viviani · Spal |
| 22' | 🟨 | Marcel Büchel · Hellas Verona FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Marco Borriello · Spal |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Alessio Cerci · Hellas Verona FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Martín Cáceres · Hellas Verona FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bartosz Salamon · Spal |
| 86' | ⚽ | Alberto Paloschi · Spal |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martín Cáceres · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 16 |
| 10 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1105.00 | 557.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.93 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1523.29 | 1480.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.54 | -20.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.20 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.59 | -1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |